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by Seth Rogovoy
WILLIAMSTOWN, Feb. 25, 1996
Those crazy Grammy Awards - you gotta love 'em!
Trying to predict who is going to win the Grammy Awards in each category every year is always made more interesting by first trying to fathom the logic behind the nominations.
For example, everyone knows that the biggest story in the music industry last year was Hootie and the Blowfish, a group that came out of nowhere and sold over 10 million albums - a humongous amount for a debut.
Yet Hootie received only two nominations going into this Wednesday's finals: for Best New Artist and Best Pop Performance by a Group. That's because even though Hootie was all over the airwaves and MTV in 1995, the album was actually released in the summer of 1994, thereby disqualifying it for all the top awards. Blame the band that it took a half year for people to notice it before all heck broke loose.
Not that we should feel too sorry for Hootie lead singer Darius Rucker - he's laughing all the way to the bank. Why not instead explain the logic behind Bob Dylan's three nominations? His rendition of the 1973 song ``Knockin' On Heaven's Door'' was nominated for Best Male Rock Vocal, while the album - it appeared on, ``MTV Unplugged,'' - was nominated in the Contemporary Folk Album category. So which is it, rock or folk? And then to mix up matters even more, he also got the nod for writing one of the best rock songs, ``Dignity,'' which appeared on his ``Greatest Hits. Vol. III.''
Apparently, contemporary folk is a catch-all category for artists who have been around a long time. That's about the only thing that ties together the nominees in that category. Besides Dylan, those nominated include The Chieftains, for an album, ``Long Black Veil,'' which was most noteworthy for guest appearances by rock musicians, and Emmylou Harris, usually considered a country performer, for an album, ``Wrecking Ball,'' consisting of songs she didn't write recorded in a modern-rock style resembling that of U2. Steve Earle and John Prine, two of our best contemporary singer-songwriters, round out the category, which ought to be reserved for the likes of them.
The party line on this year's ceremony to be broadcast Wednesday night, Feb. 28, at 8 on CBS-TV is that it's shaping up as a faceoff between newcomers Alanis Morissette (six nominations) and Joan Osborne (five). The two women share a musical approach that is often loosely described as ``alternative'' although to these ears Morissette sounds pretty mainstream and a forceful, outspoken lyrical sensibility. I'll go out on a limb and guess that Morissette the more commercially successful of the pair will walk away with three awards, albeit secondary ones, and that Osborne comes up empty-handed. The major awards pit the duo against Mariah Carey, whose middle-of-the-road style has historically garnered the most Grammys. It also helps that she's married to the president of Sony Records, meaning everyone who works for that company had to vote for her.
In any case, what follows is a review of the nominees in selected categories along with my personal preferences and predictions for how the votes will go. For those who follow such things, my records say I called seven out of 10 correctly last year, but I was only eight for 15 the year before.
In common parlance, this award translates as best single. It's an interesting race this year, with Mariah Carey's duet with Boyz II Men ``One Sweet Day'' facing off against Osborne's edgy, heretical ``One of Us,'' Seal's lushly-orchestrated, pop ballad ``Kiss From a Rose'' and T.L.C.'s '90s update of girl-group Motown, ``Waterfalls.'' Coolio's ``Gangsta Paradise'' is the first rap song to be nominated in this category, and the fact that it is basically a rewrite of Stevie Wonder's ``Pastime Paradise'' and features that songs haunting melody line makes it a worthy contender. I think T.L.C.'s tune shows more originality, so that gets my vote. In any case, the Grammy will go to Carey.
Carey, Morissette and Osborne face off against, gasp!, Pearl Jam and Michael Jackson for top album honors. It's amazing that Jackson's lame album consisting of greatest hits and forgettable new material made it this far in the balloting, and if that's an indication that members of the academy are kindly disposed toward him, he could just get the nod in a sort of sympathy vote. Of the five I'd go for Pearl Jam, but again, this one is Carey's to lose.
Of the five songs nominated this year, only two were written by the performer, and Morissette's boasts a co-writer credit. Osborne and Morissette's tunes are pretty nervy for the Grammys - Eric Bazilian's ``One of Us,'' sung by Osborne, tackles God and the Pope, Morissette's angry kiss-off, ``You Oughta Know,'' boasts the ``F-'' word. The other nominees are R.Kelly's schmaltzy ballad ``You Are Not Alone,'' as sung by Michael Jackson, All-4-One's ``I Can Love You Like That,'' which took three people to write, and Seal's ``Kiss From a Rose,'' which came from the singer's own pen. I like Seal; All-4-One's writing committee will win.
Last year's winner, Sheryl Crow, is already an afterthought, which is typical of this kiss-of-death honor. Teen soul singer Brandy and new-country singer Shania Twain are the long shots here. Fortunately for Osborne and Morissette's long-term prospects, Hootie and the Blowfish will walk away with this award as a consolation prize for their being unable to place in most of the main categories. I go along with that choice in the hope that if they win it they will join the ranks of past- winners such as Christopher Cross, the Swingle Singers and Starland Vocal Band, never to be heard from again.
A real showdown here. Carey and Osborne vie with genuine talents Annie Lennox, Vanessa Williams, Dionne Farris and Grammy hundred-pound gorilla Bonnie Raitt. I like Farris for her funky, soulful ``I Know;'' this award would have been Carey's for the asking, but since Raitt can't go home empty-handed and this is her only nomination for ``You Got It'' off the ``Boys On the Side'' soundtrack the voters will give this one to Raitt.
This one pits sandpaper-throated Bryan Adams against Michael Jackson, Seal, Sting and the perennial nominee Elton John. Seal deserves it, and he'll get it.
The nominees range from neo-doo-wop group All-4-One to the resuscitated country-rockers the Eagles, pop-rockers the Rembrandts, neo-folk-rockers Hootie and the Blowfish and contemporary R&B//girl-group T.L.C. The nice, smooth sound of All-4-One will please the academy. I'm too grumpy to choose any of these.
So why did Joni Mitchell's ``Turbulent Indigo'' get nominated here rather than in the contemporary folk category? Pop is usually synonymous with balladry, which is why you find Mariah Carey here, along with Madonna and Annie Lennox. The Eagles snuck in here somehow, too. This is a tough one to call. I like Mitchell, and although the academy likes Carey, they just might feel like giving the nod to Joni for old time's sake.
Here is where Morissette will finally get her chance to stride up to the podium, leaving Osborne cursing her underneath her breath. The likes of Toni Childs, Liz Phair and PJ Harvey are just not yet ready for prime-time.
Here the giants Dylan, Neil Young, Tom Petty face off against the Lilliputians Lenny Kravitz and Chris Isaak. Now explain to me why Isaak's smooth croon isn't a pop vocal? In any case, my heart is with Dylan, as always, but Isaak will win, and that's not such a bad thing after all.
In which the dinosaurs the Eagles and Led Zeppelin minus one face off against the upstarts Blues Traveller and the Dave Matthews Band. While they're all duking it out, the only original contemporary act nominated in this category, U2, will walk away with the trophy. (Unless they still hold Bono's bad behavior from two years ago when he said a naughty word on TV against him.)
Alanis Morissette will accomplish the inscrutable outpolling the likes of Bob Dylan and Neil Young for a songwriting award. Dylan, of course, should walk away with it ``Dignity'' is, in fact, one of his best songs ever.
Tom Petty is an establishment favorite, but Grammy voters probably voted for Morissette, thinking that meant they were hip. Neil Young should have gotten the nod here for ``Mirror Ball.''
Now that ``alternative music'' is mainstream, they ought to just do away with this category, or nominate something truly alternative like John Zorn. Grammy voters are attracted to the scent of death as much as Oscar voters: Nirvana, nominated for the posthumous ``MTV Unplugged in New York,'' will beat out Bjork, PJ Harvey, the Presidents of the United States and Foo Fighters, featuring Nirvana drummer Dave Grohl as the reincarnation of Kurt Cobain.
With Ramblin' Jack Elliott up against Dave Van Ronk, Laurie Lewis and Tom Rozum will likely eke out a victory. It's too bad, because Elliott's ``South Coast'' was a long-awaited return to form.
Don't get me started again! All five nominees deserve it. If I had to choose a favorite, it would be Emmylou Harris's ``Wrecking Ball'' which I guess one could call a contemporary folk album in that it includes songs by contemporary folk songwriters, albeit dressed up in modern-rock arrangements. But I bet the Chieftains win. Call it the luck of the Irish.
A complete listing of all the Grammy Award nominees plus other information about past and present Grammy ceremonies is available on the World Wide Web at http://www.grammy.com.
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