(WILLIAMSTOWN, Mass., Feb. 23, 1998) -- It's hard to recall a year when the Grammy Awards were harder to predict than this one. With no single artist dominating the charts and the nominations -- as have the likes of Babyface, Celine Dion, Eric Clapton and Bonnie Raitt in the recent past -- it is nearly impossible to divine what if any trend will emerge once the winners are announced on Wednesday night's broadcast of the 40th annual Grammy Awards, beginning at 8 on CBS-TV, and hosted by Kelsey Grammer of "Frasier" fame.

Part of the explanation lies, for once, in a glut of worthy nominees. Take the Record of the Year category -- the award for the best single - - which typically is the province of middle-of-the-road power ballads. This year, however, the contest pits such highly personal, Lilith Fair- fare as Shawn Colvin's "Sunny Came Home," Sheryl Crow's "Everyday Is a Winding Road" and Paula Cole's "Where Have All the Cowboys Gone?" against each other. All three are great songs by great female artists, reflecting the recent trend favoring intelligent, folk-based pop music made by female singer-songwriters.

Will fans of this type of music split their votes three ways, allowing one of the other two nominees -- "MMMBop" by pre-teen sensation Hanson, or "I Believe I Can Fly" by contemporary R&B king R. Kelly -- to squeak by? Probably yes. The rule of thumb when handicapping the Grammys is always to hope for the best and expect the worst. Nine times out of 10, multi-million-selling pop crap wins out over quality. Look for the cutie-pies of Hanson to walk off with this top award, if they are allowed to stay up that late.

The Album of the Year category, however, is one which will most likely defy the least-common-denominator rule this time around in favor of quality. Producer/artist Babyface is a Grammy favorite, but this isn't his year. Paula Cole goes into the evening with seven nominations but her only sure win is the Best New Artist award. Rock fans and critics liked Radiohead's "OK Computer," but that group's progressive rock is way too alternative to walk off with the top award.

Which leaves two rock 'n' roll icons -- Paul McCartney and Bob Dylan -- to battle it out for the top honors. McCartney's nomination for "Flaming Pie" was a fluke -- the only thing flaming about that album was how it flamed directly into obscurity upon its release. No, this past year has been Dylan's, and the man who has arguably crafted some of the finest albums of the rock era will finally be recognized by the academy for his late-career masterpiece, "Time Out of Mind."

History tells us, in fact, that this will be Dylan's night in more ways than one. First of all, Dylan's other nominations include Best Male Rock Vocal Performance -- curiously enough, for "Cold Irons Bound," his most inscrutable vocal on the album -- and he will triumph over disciples including Bruce Springsteen and John Mellencamp in that category. He'll also walk away with the award for Best Contemporary Folk Album, even though at least half the songs on "Time Out of Mind" are blues, and he could have easily been nominated in the contemporary blues category.

But there is something greater than mere songs at work here. The last time Dylan performed at the Grammys was seven years ago when, with our nation on the brink of war against Iraq, the Bobster stunned viewers with an incomprehensible version of "Masters of War" in exchange for a Lifetime Achievement Award. Did somebody say "deja vu?" Bombs falling on Baghdad or not, look for an encore performance of some sort. This time the only question is whether or not Dylan's son Jakob, the lead singer-songwriter of the rock group The Wallflowers -- nominated for best group rock vocal and best rock song, both of which he should win - - will join papa Dylan onstage. That's not likely. But maybe, just maybe, Jakob Dylan will be given the honor of presenting his dad with his very first Album of the Year award.

Getting back to the women, look for Shawn Colvin to take the honors for Song of the Year. The Best Female Pop Vocal category is a real catfight, with corporate pop queen Mariah Carey scratching it out against folk-popsters Colvin, Jewel, Sarah McLachlan and Paula Cole, but again, look for Colvin to eke out a well-deserved victory.

Curiously enough, there is a real Berkshire factor in this year's awards, in that most of those who performed in Lenox last summer at Tanglewood or the National Music Foundation garnered nominations. In addition to the aforementioned Dylan and Colvin, Duncan Sheik, who opened for Colvin at the Berkshire Performing Arts Theatre, is up for Best Male Pop Vocal, but that category is a cakewalk for Elton John and his dead-blonde anthem. The incomparable Tanglewood perennial James Taylor got a nod for Best Pop Album, but it will tough for him to outpoll Fleetwood Mac in that category. Chick Corea and Joe Lovano, both of whom took part in Tanglewood's Jazz Festival, also received nominations this year. Call it "the Berkshire bounce."

In what is perhaps the most unlikeliest nomination of all, Ani DiFranco -- who opened for Dylan at Tanglewood last August -- is up for Best Female Rock Vocal. It is virtually unprecedented for a self- produced artist -- DiFranco basically makes her own records and sells them independently -- to be recognized by the corporate-sponsored Grammys. Of course DiFranco won't win; her category goes to "Bitch"- poseur Meredith Brooks.

Also of local note is the Best Musical Album for Children category, in which the Berkshire's own Arlo Guthrie, along with his late dad, Woody, received a nomination for "This Land Is Your Land." Alas, Guthrie is up against the recently-deceased John Denver, and nothing insures success in this sort of venture like an accidental death.

[This article originally appeared in the Berkshire Eagle on Feb. 25, 1998. Copyright Seth Rogovoy 1998. All rights reserved.]