Predicting Grammy 2001
by Seth Rogovoy

(GREAT BARRINGTON, Mass., February 17, 2001)- Whatever excitement and suspense there is going into Wednesday night's Grammy Award telecast pretty much surrounds Eminem. This is as much a result of the lack of any other odds-on favorite to clean up at the awards ceremony, which begins at 8 p.m. on CBS-TV, as it is due to the controversial rapper's violent, scatological and allegedly homophobic song lyrics on his "Marshall Mathers LP," nominated for best album and for several rap awards.

Elton John, perhaps the most famous gay man in the world, has come to Eminem's defense, and will perform alongside the rapper at the awards show. Others scheduled to perform include Madonna, Christina Aguilera, Nnenna Freelon, 'N Sync and Brad Paisley. Look for Bono of the Irish rock band U2, also slated to play, to make his feelings known in some equally outrageous way, as he did a few years ago on the Grammys when paying tribute to Frank Sinatra with an obscene, undeleted expletive.

Political controversy aside, this year there are no clear favorites dominating the proceedings; top nominees are rap prodcuer Dr. Dre and teen-pop group Destiny's Child, with five nominations apiece. Many others boast four or fewer nominationsm, but none come in like Santana or Lauryn Hill in recent years, threatening to monopolize the award podium.

There is, however, one trend worth noting. The Grammys typically affirm the commercial consensus, honoring sales rather than artistic achievement. So with kiddie-pop and frat-rock dominating the sales charts, you'd expect that the likes of Britney Spears and Limp Bizkit would dominate the show. In fact, the nominees are a diverse crew, and in particular the major categories include some surprises detailed below.

Here's my annual forecast by selected category. "W" means the predicted winner; "SR" is this critic's pick.

Best Record: As much as I love U2's comeback album and the lead single, "Beautiful Day," this category is a catfight between Madonna's "Music" and Macy Gray's "I Try." Both were huge, catchy, deserving hits, and it's possible that votes will be split between them and that ear candy by Destiny's Child or 'N Sync could squeak through. In the end, it's hard to argue with a song called "Music" - that pretty much sums it up, doesn't it? (W: Macy Gray. SR: Madonna.)

Best Album: One thing is for sure: there is no way in the world Eminem will walk away with this award. Not that he is totally undeserving; for all the controversy surrounding it, his "Marshall Mathers LP" is impossible to ignore. It's like driving past a horrible car accident; you just have to look. Otherwise, "Midnight Vultures," Beck's version of a Prince album, is a curiosity; Steely Dan's "Two Against Nature" could have been released intact 25 years ago; and Radiohead's "Kid A" is far too experimental to win. Which leaves the wholly deserving and woefully overlooked "You're the One" by Paul Simon, his best since the Grammy-winning "Graceland." (W: Paul Simon. SR: Paul Simon.)

Best Song: Let's assume for no particular reason that this award won't go to a country song, or that votes for Lee Ann Womack and Faith Hill cancel each other out. In that case, this category pits three repeaters from the best record category: Destiny Child's "Say My Name," Macy Gray's "I Try," and U2's "Beautiful Day." Macy Gray and her fellow songwriters are a shoo-in, especially if she wins Best Record. (W: Macy Gray. SR: Macy Gray.)

Best New Artist: The Grammys are always at their most curious in this category, where, for example, an artist who has been recording for well over a decade like Shelby Lynne can be nominated. (W: Jill Scott. SR: Shelby Lynne.)

Best Female Pop Vocal: The six nominees in this category range from the sublime - Joni Mitchell - to the ridiculous - Britney Spears. In between you've got Christina Aguilera, who never met a vocal swoop she didn't like, Aimee Mann, who is deserving but just can never get a break, Madonna, and the very oddly-voiced Macy Gray, for her smash hit "I Try." Macy Gray will win, and I like her too, although I have a hard time deciding if she really is the new Billie Holiday or the new Donald Duck. (W: Macy Gray. SR: Macy Gray.)

Best Pop Vocal Album: A hard one to call, with a diverse lineup of nominees, ranging from grown-up rockers like Don Henley and Steely Dan to pop royalty like Madonna to teeny-poppers such as N' Sync and the dreadful Britney Spears - what is wrong with that girl's voice? Vocals aren't Steely Dan's strong point, nor are they Madonna's. Don Henley may well win this one, simply because he's such a good guy - he's the politically correct choice.(W: Don Henley. SR: Madonna.)

Best Female Rock Vocal: This category pits a typical crew of the likes of Melissa Etheridge, Alanis Morrissette, Fiona Apple and Sheryl Crow against the woman who pretty much broke the female rock vocal mold, Patti Smith, in what is probably her first nomination ever. (W: Sheryl Crow. SR: Patti Smith.)

Best Male Rock Vocal: An incredibly diverse bunch of nominees this year in a category that usually pits the ordinary against the even more ordinary. But this year the nominees include David Bowie, who does a wonderful job in his best world-weary, man-who-fell-to-earth crooning voice on "Thursday's Child," Lenny Kravitz, Trent Reznor of Nine Inch Nails, the smooth-voiced Don Henley, and Bob Dylan, for "Things Have Changed" from the movie "Wonder Boys." Dylan will win out of sentimentality - after all, he turns 60 this year - but he deserves it, anyway. (W: Bob Dylan. SR: Bob Dylan.)

Best Alternative Music Album: The nominees are Fiona Apple, Beck, The Cure, and believe it or not, Paul McCartney, for an album called "Liverpool Sound Collage" that no one has heard of, much less heard. But this category is a cinch to call: Radiohead, for "Kid A," perhaps the weirdest, most experimental best-selling album by a major rock band ever. (W: Radiohead. SR: Radiohead.)

Best Rap Performance: Eminem is nominated in all three rap categories: Best Rap Performance by a duo or group for his collaboration with Dr. Dre, Best Rap Song for "The Real Slim Shady," and Best Rap Album for "The Marshall Mathers LP." This of course is in addition to his controversial nomination for overall Album of the Year. He'll sweep the rap awards, but get shut out of the big kahuna. (W: Eminem. SR: Eminem.)

Best Contemporary Folk Album: An impressively strong lineup of contenders, includes Billy Bragg and Wilco's second album of Woody Guthrie songs, Steve Earle's excellent "Transcendental Blues", John Hiatt's unplugged "Crossing Muddy Waters," Johnny Cash's "Solitary Man" and Emmylou Harris's "Red Dirt Girl." Cash will win, if only for sentimental reasons, given his recent battles with health problems. (W: Johnny Cash. SR: Emmylou Harris.)

[This column originally appeared in the Berkshire Eagle on Feb. 20, 2001. Copyright Seth Rogovoy 2001. All rights reserved.]